Calibration

Can you trust a lane? Each rule set is scored on what its coins did within 7 days of first crossing $75k; a 10x is a winner. Counts always; a rate appears from 30 resolved outcomes.

Computed 15 Oct 07:25 UTC. Refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Read this first

Live rules v4.6.0 since 12 Oct 09:02 UTC · 5339 coins placed · 0 outcomes resolved · first 30 expected 19 Oct 14:57 UTC

Shadow evidence ready: No tape (v4.6.0-shadow-watch-18h): 227 resolved, false kill 13 / 227 · owner decides

Shadow evidence ready: No tape (v4.5.0-shadow-wash-hour): 264 resolved, false kill 14 / 264 · owner decides

Shadow evidence ready: No tape (v4.4.0-shadow-sized-watch): 273 resolved, false kill 16 / 273 · owner decides

Shadow evidence ready: No tape (v4.1.0-shadow-clock-first): 286 resolved, false kill 19 / 286 · owner decides

Shadow evidence ready: No tape (v4.1.0-shadow-fdv-as-cap): 286 resolved, false kill 19 / 286 · owner decides

Shadow evidence ready: No tape (v4.1.0-shadow-lottery-kill): 286 resolved, false kill 19 / 286 · owner decides

Survival from Watch entry

Watch entries in the last 7 days: of those read at or after the horizon, how many read at or above the entry cap. A rate appears only at 30 or more readings.

Segment	1h	6h	24h
Graduated <$1M	108 / 316 · 34% (29–40%)	98 / 316 · 31% (26–36%)	45 / 316 · 14% (11–19%)
Recognition window	29 / 78 · 37% (27–48%)	23 / 74 · 31% (22–42%)	10 / 70 · 14% (7.9–24%)
all	137 / 394 · 35% (30–40%)	121 / 390 · 31% (27–36%)	55 / 386 · 14% (11–18%)

Swipe for 6h and 24h →

Outcomes so far

Every rule version. An outcome with no winner verdict is unknown, never a non-winner. The 2h and 24h multiples and 10x so far are interim, not the winner label.

1552 outcomes · 311 resolved · 80 unknown · winners 24 / 231 · 10% (7.1–15%) · capturable 16 / 23 (1 not measured) · 30 resolved reached · time to 10x median 1h 00m · p95 2d 19h · n 171

Chain	Outcomes	Resolved	Unknown	Winners	10x so far	2h at 1x / 2x / 10x	24h at 1x / 2x / 10x
base	11	1	0	0 / 1 · rate at 30	0	7 / 2 / 0 of 9	3 / 1 / 0 of 10
robinhood	413	56	19	12 / 37 · 32% (20–49%)	95	170 / 110 / 51 of 291	115 / 77 / 25 of 301
solana	1128	254	61	12 / 193 · 6.2% (3.6–11%)	52	196 / 77 / 6 of 851	111 / 45 / 3 of 841
all	1552	311	80	24 / 231 · 10% (7.1–15%)	147	373 / 189 / 57 of 1151	229 / 123 / 28 of 1152

Swipe for winners and the interim counts →

Lane transitions

Every lane change read on the tape, from the lane before it. Readings and distinct coins; counts only.

Last 24h (since 14 Oct 07:25 UTC)

From	To	Readings	Coins
Wait	Killed	882	579
Killed	Wait	437	197
Wait	Trap	105	28
Trap	Wait	91	23
Trap	Killed	45	22
Killed	Trap	32	11
Wait	Watch	10	3
Watch	Wait	9	3

Last 7d (since 8 Oct 07:25 UTC)

From	To	Readings	Coins
Wait	Killed	6007	3656
Killed	Wait	2604	913
Wait	Trap	772	161
Trap	Wait	708	160
Trap	Killed	365	122
Wait	Watch	322	108
Watch	Wait	321	106
Killed	Trap	270	61
Watch	Trap	80	16
Trap	Watch	70	12
Killed	Watch	4	4
Watch	Killed	1	1

v4.6.0live

Scored on coins that became actionable while this version was live.

Thresholds written by ensureRuleVersion() on the first tick · live from 12 Oct 09:02 UTC · row written 12 Oct 09:02 UTC

5339 coins · 0 resolved · 0 never eligible · winners none yet · Sub-$100k kill: unmeasured (0 resolved)

Segment	Placed	Winners	False pass	False kill	Forgone multiple	Kill latency	Losers
Empty pool(Killed)	71	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	37s · p95 1m · n 29	—
No pool data(Killed)	53	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 15m · n 24	—
Dust pool(Killed)	245	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	31s · p95 1m · n 130	—
No tape(Killed)	4654	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	42s · p95 21m · n 4260	—
Collapsed(Killed)	788	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 189	—
Wash volume(Killed)	511	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 47	—
Dumped(Killed)	312	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	n 0	—
Too big, too fast(Trap)	42	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Launch hour(Wait)	619	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
On curve(Wait)	1153	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Peaked(Trap)	80	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Sub-$100k(Wait)	485	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Drifting(Wait)	203	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Off-quote pool(Wait)	110	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Graduated <$1M(Watch)	147	none yet	none yet	n/a	—	—	—
Sized, too young(Wait)	72	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Recognition window(Watch)	16	none yet	none yet	n/a	—	—	—

Swipe for winners, false kill and forgone →

v4.6.0-shadow-watch-18hshadow

Scored on every coin it placed, for comparison. It never made the call.

v4.6.0 with the Graduated band closing at 18h (the v4.5.0 line): the undo shadow of D107. Only gradAgeH differs from live. · shadow, never live · row written 12 Oct 09:05 UTC

5339 coins · 238 resolved · 0 never eligible · winners 17 / 175 · 9.7% (6.2–15%) · 1 winners the Sub-$100k kill removed

Segment	Placed	Resolved	Winners	False pass	False kill	Forgone multiple	Kill latency	Losers
Empty pool(Killed)	71	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	37s · p95 1m · n 29	—
No pool data(Killed)	53	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 15m · n 24	Collapse 1
Dust pool(Killed)	245	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	31s · p95 1m · n 130	Launch dump 1
No tape(Killed)	4654	232	14 / 170 · 8.2% (5.0–13%)	n/a	11 / 160 · 6.9% (3.9–12%)	16.0x · p95 161x · n 11	42s · p95 21m · n 4260	Wash 35 · Collapse 42 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 6 · Pool pull 25 · Slow death 9 · Launch dump 38
Collapsed(Killed)	788	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 189	—
Wash volume(Killed)	510	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 47	—
Dumped(Killed)	312	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	n 0	—
Too big, too fast(Trap)	42	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Launch hour(Wait)	619	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
On curve(Wait)	1152	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Peaked(Trap)	80	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Sub-$100k(Wait)	485	6	3 / 4 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Collapse 1
Drifting(Wait)	188	10	4 / 7 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Survivor 3
Off-quote pool(Wait)	109	1	1 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Graduated <$1M(Watch)	155	0	none yet	none yet	n/a	—	—	—
Sized, too young(Wait)	72	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Recognition window(Watch)	16	3	3 / 3 · rate at 30	0 / 3 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	—

Swipe for winners, false kill and forgone →

v4.5.0-shadow-wash-hourshadow

Scored on every coin it placed, for comparison. It never made the call.

v4.5.0 with the Wash volume numerator read on the last hour (over 1x cap) instead of the 24h pile (over 15x cap); pool and cap legs unchanged (F02-3). Only the wash check differs from live. Base moved to v4.6.0 (gradAgeH 12, D107). · shadow, never live · row written 8 Oct 21:09 UTC

6335 coins · 275 resolved · 0 never eligible · winners 18 / 206 · 8.7% (5.6–13%) · 1 winners the Sub-$100k kill removed

Segment	Placed	Resolved	Winners	False pass	False kill	Forgone multiple	Kill latency	Losers
Empty pool(Killed)	131	1	1 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	1 / 1 · rate at 30	10.1x · p95 10.1x · n 1	35s · p95 1m · n 53	—
No pool data(Killed)	70	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 15m · n 34	Collapse 1
Dust pool(Killed)	449	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	32s · p95 1m · n 213	Launch dump 1
No tape(Killed)	5598	270	15 / 202 · 7.4% (4.6–12%)	n/a	12 / 190 · 6.3% (3.6–11%)	16.5x · p95 161x · n 12	45s · p95 25m · n 5087	Wash 41 · Collapse 53 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 7 · Pool pull 31 · Slow death 10 · Launch dump 44
Collapsed(Killed)	1554	2	1 / 2 · rate at 30	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 251	Survivor 1
Wash volume(Killed)	1177	1	1 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 47	—
Dumped(Killed)	254	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	n 0	—
Too big, too fast(Trap)	92	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Launch hour(Wait)	1292	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
On curve(Wait)	2262	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Peaked(Trap)	171	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Sub-$100k(Wait)	1063	18	4 / 9 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 1 · Collapse 2 · Survivor 2
FDV only(Wait)	6	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Drifting(Wait)	304	19	5 / 11 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 1 · Survivor 4 · Launch dump 1
Off-quote pool(Wait)	240	3	1 / 3 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1 · Slow death 1
Graduated <$1M(Watch)	328	0	none yet	none yet	n/a	—	—	—
Sized, too young(Wait)	132	4	3 / 4 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1
Recognition window(Watch)	19	5	4 / 5 · rate at 30	1 / 5 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1

Swipe for winners, false kill and forgone →

v4.4.0-shadow-sized-watchshadow

Scored on every coin it placed, for comparison. It never made the call.

v4.4.0 with the v4.3.0 reading of Sized, too young (Watch, not Wait): the undo shadow of D86. No threshold differs from live. Base moved to v4.6.0 (gradAgeH 12, D107). · shadow, never live · row written 7 Oct 01:37 UTC

6594 coins · 284 resolved · 0 never eligible · winners 20 / 211 · 9.5% (6.2–14%) · 1 winners the Sub-$100k kill removed

Segment	Placed	Resolved	Winners	False pass	False kill	Forgone multiple	Kill latency	Losers
Empty pool(Killed)	154	2	1 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	1 / 1 · rate at 30	10.1x · p95 10.1x · n 1	37s · p95 6m · n 61	—
No pool data(Killed)	75	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 15m · n 35	Collapse 1
Dust pool(Killed)	534	3	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 255	Pool pull 1 · Launch dump 1
No tape(Killed)	5820	279	17 / 207 · 8.2% (5.2–13%)	n/a	12 / 193 · 6.2% (3.6–11%)	16.5x · p95 161x · n 12	46s · p95 29m · n 5260	Wash 41 · Collapse 54 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 7 · Pool pull 33 · Slow death 10 · Launch dump 44
Collapsed(Killed)	2000	5	1 / 4 · rate at 30	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 5m · n 283	Wash 1 · Collapse 1 · Survivor 1
Wash volume(Killed)	1337	2	1 / 2 · rate at 30	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 49	Launch dump 1
Dumped(Killed)	794	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	n 0	—
Too big, too fast(Trap)	116	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Launch hour(Wait)	1704	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
On curve(Wait)	2813	2	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Slow death 1
Peaked(Trap)	206	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Sub-$100k(Wait)	1113	35	5 / 24 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 2 · Collapse 7 · Survivor 3 · Slow death 1 · Launch dump 6
FDV only(Wait)	7	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Drifting(Wait)	342	26	9 / 15 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 1 · Survivor 4 · Launch dump 1
Off-quote pool(Wait)	319	6	1 / 6 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Collapse 1 · Survivor 1 · Pool pull 2 · Slow death 1
Graduated <$1M(Watch)	416	0	none yet	none yet	n/a	—	—	—
Sized, too young(Wait)	161	4	3 / 4 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1
Recognition window(Watch)	20	6	5 / 6 · rate at 30	1 / 6 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1

Swipe for winners, false kill and forgone →

v4.1.0-shadow-clock-firstshadow

Scored on every coin it placed, for comparison. It never made the call.

v4.1.0 with the v4.0.0 gate order: clock before the dust, curve and off-quote stops (D68). Base moved to v4.6.0 (gradAgeH 12, D107). · shadow, never live · row written 5 Oct 21:38 UTC

6791 coins · 303 resolved · 0 never eligible · winners 24 / 227 · 11% (7.2–15%) · 1 winners the Sub-$100k kill removed

Segment	Placed	Resolved	Winners	False pass	False kill	Forgone multiple	Kill latency	Losers
Empty pool(Killed)	174	12	3 / 8 · rate at 30	n/a	1 / 4 · rate at 30	10.1x · p95 10.1x · n 1	37s · p95 14m · n 67	Survivor 1 · Pool pull 4
No pool data(Killed)	76	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 15m · n 36	Collapse 1
No tape(Killed)	5978	293	20 / 219 · 9.1% (6.0–14%)	n/a	14 / 196 · 7.1% (4.3–12%)	18.6x · p95 161x · n 14	46s · p95 29m · n 5327	Wash 42 · Collapse 57 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 7 · Pool pull 38 · Slow death 10 · Launch dump 44
Collapsed(Killed)	2377	94	11 / 91 · 12% (6.9–20%)	n/a	6 / 8 · rate at 30	32.9x · p95 79.1x · n 6	30s · p95 5m · n 324	Wash 17 · Collapse 3 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 1 · Pool pull 28 · Launch dump 30
Wash volume(Killed)	1582	57	4 / 56 · 7.1% (2.8–17%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 54	Wash 15 · Honeypot 1 · Pool pull 12 · Launch dump 24
Dumped(Killed)	2690	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	n 0	—
Too big, too fast(Trap)	141	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Launch hour(Wait)	4689	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
On curve(Wait)	2417	3	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Slow death 1 · Launch dump 1
Peaked(Trap)	242	14	14 / 14 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Sub-$100k(Wait)	1824	91	7 / 72 · 9.7% (4.8–19%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 14 · Collapse 8 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 4 · Pool pull 17 · Slow death 3 · Launch dump 18
FDV only(Wait)	10	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Drifting(Wait)	397	36	9 / 22 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 2 · Collapse 1 · Survivor 4 · Pool pull 2 · Slow death 1 · Launch dump 3
Off-quote pool(Wait)	11	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Graduated <$1M(Watch)	480	4	0 / 3 · rate at 30	3 / 3 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Collapse 1 · Pool pull 1 · Launch dump 1
Sized, too young(Wait)	185	6	3 / 5 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 1 · Survivor 1
Recognition window(Watch)	20	6	5 / 6 · rate at 30	1 / 6 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1

Swipe for winners, false kill and forgone →

v4.1.0-shadow-fdv-as-capshadow

Scored on every coin it placed, for comparison. It never made the call.

v4.1.0 with FDV read as cap by the size gates (v4.0.0 rule) (D71). Base moved to v4.6.0 (gradAgeH 12, D107). · shadow, never live · row written 5 Oct 21:38 UTC

6791 coins · 303 resolved · 0 never eligible · winners 24 / 227 · 11% (7.2–15%) · 1 winners the Sub-$100k kill removed

Segment	Placed	Resolved	Winners	False pass	False kill	Forgone multiple	Kill latency	Losers
Empty pool(Killed)	178	12	3 / 8 · rate at 30	n/a	1 / 4 · rate at 30	10.1x · p95 10.1x · n 1	37s · p95 14m · n 69	Survivor 1 · Pool pull 4
No pool data(Killed)	76	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 15m · n 36	Collapse 1
Dust pool(Killed)	605	18	0 / 14 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 5m · n 274	Pool pull 13 · Launch dump 1
No tape(Killed)	5978	293	20 / 219 · 9.1% (6.0–14%)	n/a	14 / 196 · 7.1% (4.3–12%)	18.6x · p95 161x · n 14	46s · p95 29m · n 5327	Wash 42 · Collapse 57 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 7 · Pool pull 38 · Slow death 10 · Launch dump 44
Collapsed(Killed)	2377	94	11 / 91 · 12% (6.9–20%)	n/a	6 / 8 · rate at 30	32.9x · p95 79.1x · n 6	30s · p95 5m · n 324	Wash 17 · Collapse 3 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 1 · Pool pull 28 · Launch dump 30
Wash volume(Killed)	1582	57	4 / 56 · 7.1% (2.8–17%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 54	Wash 15 · Honeypot 1 · Pool pull 12 · Launch dump 24
Dumped(Killed)	933	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	n 0	—
Too big, too fast(Trap)	141	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Launch hour(Wait)	1999	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
On curve(Wait)	3301	3	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Slow death 1 · Launch dump 1
Peaked(Trap)	236	14	14 / 14 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Sub-$100k(Wait)	1268	70	6 / 55 · 11% (5.1–22%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 14 · Collapse 7 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 3 · Pool pull 5 · Slow death 2 · Launch dump 17
Drifting(Wait)	379	36	9 / 22 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 2 · Collapse 1 · Survivor 4 · Pool pull 2 · Slow death 1 · Launch dump 3
Off-quote pool(Wait)	363	7	1 / 7 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Collapse 1 · Survivor 1 · Pool pull 3 · Slow death 1
Graduated <$1M(Watch)	480	4	0 / 3 · rate at 30	3 / 3 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Collapse 1 · Pool pull 1 · Launch dump 1
Sized, too young(Wait)	184	6	3 / 5 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 1 · Survivor 1
Recognition window(Watch)	20	6	5 / 6 · rate at 30	1 / 6 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1

Swipe for winners, false kill and forgone →

v4.1.0-shadow-lottery-killshadow

Scored on every coin it placed, for comparison. It never made the call.

v4.1.0 with the Sub-$100k kill (v4.0.0 rule). Promote only at 30 resolved forgone-winner and false-kill outcomes (D70). Base moved to v4.6.0 (gradAgeH 12, D107). · shadow, never live · row written 5 Oct 21:38 UTC

6791 coins · 303 resolved · 0 never eligible · winners 24 / 227 · 11% (7.2–15%) · 1 winners the Sub-$100k kill removed

Segment	Placed	Resolved	Winners	False pass	False kill	Forgone multiple	Kill latency	Losers
Empty pool(Killed)	178	12	3 / 8 · rate at 30	n/a	1 / 4 · rate at 30	10.1x · p95 10.1x · n 1	37s · p95 14m · n 69	Survivor 1 · Pool pull 4
No pool data(Killed)	76	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 15m · n 36	Collapse 1
Dust pool(Killed)	605	18	0 / 14 · rate at 30	n/a	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n 0	30s · p95 5m · n 274	Pool pull 13 · Launch dump 1
No tape(Killed)	5978	293	20 / 219 · 9.1% (6.0–14%)	n/a	14 / 196 · 7.1% (4.3–12%)	18.6x · p95 161x · n 14	46s · p95 29m · n 5327	Wash 42 · Collapse 57 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 7 · Pool pull 38 · Slow death 10 · Launch dump 44
Collapsed(Killed)	2377	94	11 / 91 · 12% (6.9–20%)	n/a	6 / 8 · rate at 30	32.9x · p95 79.1x · n 6	30s · p95 5m · n 324	Wash 17 · Collapse 3 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 1 · Pool pull 28 · Launch dump 30
Wash volume(Killed)	1582	57	4 / 56 · 7.1% (2.8–17%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners	n/a	none yet	n 0	30s · p95 1m · n 54	Wash 15 · Honeypot 1 · Pool pull 12 · Launch dump 24
Dumped(Killed)	933	0	none yet	n/a	none yet	n 0	n 0	—
Too big, too fast(Trap)	141	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Launch hour(Wait)	1999	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
On curve(Wait)	3301	3	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Slow death 1 · Launch dump 1
Peaked(Trap)	236	14	14 / 14 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Sub-$100k(Wait)	1267	70	6 / 55 · 11% (5.1–22%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 14 · Collapse 7 · Honeypot 1 · Survivor 3 · Pool pull 5 · Slow death 2 · Launch dump 17
FDV only(Wait)	7	0	none yet	n/a	n/a	—	—	—
Drifting(Wait)	379	36	9 / 22 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 2 · Collapse 1 · Survivor 4 · Pool pull 2 · Slow death 1 · Launch dump 3
Off-quote pool(Wait)	363	7	1 / 7 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Collapse 1 · Survivor 1 · Pool pull 3 · Slow death 1
Graduated <$1M(Watch)	480	4	0 / 3 · rate at 30	3 / 3 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Collapse 1 · Pool pull 1 · Launch dump 1
Sized, too young(Wait)	184	6	3 / 5 · rate at 30	n/a	n/a	—	—	Wash 1 · Survivor 1
Recognition window(Watch)	20	6	5 / 6 · rate at 30	1 / 6 · rate at 30	n/a	—	—	Survivor 1

Swipe for winners, false kill and forgone →

Shadow rules beside live

Distinct coins placed per segment: the live version from stored ticks, each shadow version from its shadow placements. Counts only.

Segment	v4.6.0 (live)	v4.6.0-shadow-watch-18h (shadow)	v4.5.0-shadow-wash-hour (shadow)	v4.4.0-shadow-sized-watch (shadow)	v4.1.0-shadow-clock-first (shadow)	v4.1.0-shadow-fdv-as-cap (shadow)	v4.1.0-shadow-lottery-kill (shadow)
Empty pool	71	71	131	154	174	178	178
No pool data	53	53	70	75	76	76	76
Dust pool	245	245	449	534	0	605	605
No tape	4654	4654	5598	5820	5978	5978	5978
Collapsed	788	788	1554	2000	2377	2377	2377
Wash volume	511	510	1177	1337	1582	1582	1582
Dumped	312	312	254	794	2690	933	933
Too big, too fast	42	42	92	116	141	141	141
Launch hour	619	619	1292	1704	4689	1999	1999
On curve	1153	1152	2262	2813	2417	3301	3301
Peaked	80	80	171	206	242	236	236
Sub-$100k	485	485	1063	1113	1824	1268	1267
FDV only	0	0	6	7	10	0	7
Drifting	203	188	304	342	397	379	379
Off-quote pool	110	109	240	319	11	363	363
Graduated <$1M	147	155	328	416	480	480	480
Sized, too young	72	72	132	161	185	184	184
Recognition window	16	16	19	20	20	20	20

Swipe for every shadow version →

Coins v4.6.0-shadow-watch-18h would place differently: the latest live raw segment against the latest shadow segment. Nothing here moves a coin; the live rule set still decides.

Live	Shadow	Coins
Drifting(Wait)	Graduated <$1M(Watch)	5

Kills under v4.6.0-shadow-watch-18h: coins whose latest shadow placement is a kill, and of those resolved, the winners it would have removed. Promotion needs 30 resolved outcomes in the segment.

Segment	Killed	Resolved	False kill	Forgone multiple	Max	Status
Empty pool(Killed)	26	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
No pool data(Killed)	46	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
Dust pool(Killed)	38	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
No tape(Killed)	4564	227	13 / 227 · 5.7% (3.4–9.6%)	16.9x · p95 161x · n 13	161x	evidence ready (227 resolved): owner decides
Collapsed(Killed)	151	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Wash volume(Killed)	57	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)

Swipe for false kill, forgone and status →

Coins v4.5.0-shadow-wash-hour would place differently: the latest live raw segment against the latest shadow segment. Nothing here moves a coin; the live rule set still decides.

Live	Shadow	Coins
Wash volume(Killed)	Sub-$100k(Wait)	38
On curve(Wait)	Wash volume(Killed)	23
Wash volume(Killed)	Dust pool(Killed)	10
Off-quote pool(Wait)	Wash volume(Killed)	6
Wash volume(Killed)	Off-quote pool(Wait)	4
Wash volume(Killed)	Peaked(Trap)	2

Kills under v4.5.0-shadow-wash-hour: coins whose latest shadow placement is a kill, and of those resolved, the winners it would have removed. Promotion needs 30 resolved outcomes in the segment.

Segment	Killed	Resolved	False kill	Forgone multiple	Max	Status
Empty pool(Killed)	34	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
No pool data(Killed)	62	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
Dust pool(Killed)	55	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
No tape(Killed)	5480	264	14 / 264 · 5.3% (3.2–8.7%)	21.1x · p95 161x · n 14	161x	evidence ready (264 resolved): owner decides
Collapsed(Killed)	159	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Wash volume(Killed)	34	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)

Swipe for false kill, forgone and status →

Coins v4.4.0-shadow-sized-watch would place differently: the latest live raw segment against the latest shadow segment. Nothing here moves a coin; the live rule set still decides.

No coin placed differently yet.

Kills under v4.4.0-shadow-sized-watch: coins whose latest shadow placement is a kill, and of those resolved, the winners it would have removed. Promotion needs 30 resolved outcomes in the segment.

Segment	Killed	Resolved	False kill	Forgone multiple	Max	Status
Empty pool(Killed)	37	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
No pool data(Killed)	62	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
Dust pool(Killed)	47	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
No tape(Killed)	5699	273	16 / 273 · 5.9% (3.6–9.3%)	20.8x · p95 161x · n 16	161x	evidence ready (273 resolved): owner decides
Collapsed(Killed)	165	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Wash volume(Killed)	59	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)

Swipe for false kill, forgone and status →

Coins v4.1.0-shadow-clock-first would place differently: the latest live raw segment against the latest shadow segment. Nothing here moves a coin; the live rule set still decides.

Live	Shadow	Coins
On curve(Wait)	Launch hour(Wait)	106
Dust pool(Killed)	Sub-$100k(Wait)	51
Off-quote pool(Wait)	Launch hour(Wait)	10
Off-quote pool(Wait)	Sub-$100k(Wait)	7
Off-quote pool(Wait)	Drifting(Wait)	2
Dust pool(Killed)	Peaked(Trap)	1
Off-quote pool(Wait)	Dumped(Killed)	1
Off-quote pool(Wait)	FDV only(Wait)	1

Kills under v4.1.0-shadow-clock-first: coins whose latest shadow placement is a kill, and of those resolved, the winners it would have removed. Promotion needs 30 resolved outcomes in the segment.

Segment	Killed	Resolved	False kill	Forgone multiple	Max	Status
Empty pool(Killed)	43	5	1 / 5 · rate at 30	16.7x · p95 16.7x · n 1	16.7x	promote: needs 30 resolved (5 so far)
No pool data(Killed)	63	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
No tape(Killed)	5850	286	19 / 286 · 6.6% (4.3–10%)	24.6x · p95 161x · n 19	161x	evidence ready (286 resolved): owner decides
Collapsed(Killed)	169	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Wash volume(Killed)	61	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Dumped(Killed)	1	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)

Swipe for false kill, forgone and status →

Coins v4.1.0-shadow-fdv-as-cap would place differently: the latest live raw segment against the latest shadow segment. Nothing here moves a coin; the live rule set still decides.

Live	Shadow	Coins
FDV only(Wait)	Sub-$100k(Wait)	1

Kills under v4.1.0-shadow-fdv-as-cap: coins whose latest shadow placement is a kill, and of those resolved, the winners it would have removed. Promotion needs 30 resolved outcomes in the segment.

Segment	Killed	Resolved	False kill	Forgone multiple	Max	Status
Empty pool(Killed)	43	5	1 / 5 · rate at 30	16.7x · p95 16.7x · n 1	16.7x	promote: needs 30 resolved (5 so far)
No pool data(Killed)	63	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
Dust pool(Killed)	52	2	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (2 so far)
No tape(Killed)	5850	286	19 / 286 · 6.6% (4.3–10%)	24.6x · p95 161x · n 19	161x	evidence ready (286 resolved): owner decides
Collapsed(Killed)	169	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Wash volume(Killed)	61	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)

Swipe for false kill, forgone and status →

Coins v4.1.0-shadow-lottery-kill would place differently: the latest live raw segment against the latest shadow segment. Nothing here moves a coin; the live rule set still decides.

No coin placed differently yet.

Kills under v4.1.0-shadow-lottery-kill: coins whose latest shadow placement is a kill, and of those resolved, the winners it would have removed. Promotion needs 30 resolved outcomes in the segment.

Segment	Killed	Resolved	False kill	Forgone multiple	Max	Status
Empty pool(Killed)	43	5	1 / 5 · rate at 30	16.7x · p95 16.7x · n 1	16.7x	promote: needs 30 resolved (5 so far)
No pool data(Killed)	63	1	0 / 1 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (1 so far)
Dust pool(Killed)	52	2	0 / 2 · rate at 30	n 0	—	promote: needs 30 resolved (2 so far)
No tape(Killed)	5850	286	19 / 286 · 6.6% (4.3–10%)	24.6x · p95 161x · n 19	161x	evidence ready (286 resolved): owner decides
Collapsed(Killed)	169	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Wash volume(Killed)	61	0	unmeasured	unmeasured	—	unmeasured: promote needs 30 resolved (0 so far)
Sub-$100k(Wait)	99	2	1 / 2 · rate at 30	12.2x · p95 12.2x · n 1	12.2x	promote: needs 30 resolved (2 so far)

Swipe for false kill, forgone and status →

Baseline M0

Winner rate of all eligible coins: every lift is measured against it.

Overall 24 / 231 · 10% (7.1–15%)

Chain	Cap at cross	Regime	Winners
all	100k-1M	all	5 / 36 · 14% (6.1–29%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners
all	1M+	all	0 / 2 · rate at 30
all	75k-100k	all	16 / 91 · 18% (11–27%)
all	unknown	all	3 / 102 · 2.9% (1.0–8.3%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners
base	75k-100k	regime unknown: anchored before the first pull of this store	0 / 1 · rate at 30
base	all	all	0 / 1 · rate at 30
robinhood	100k-1M	Break	3 / 9 · rate at 30
robinhood	75k-100k	Break	5 / 14 · rate at 30
robinhood	75k-100k	Break risk	2 / 4 · rate at 30
robinhood	75k-100k	regime unknown: anchored before the first pull of this store	2 / 2 · rate at 30
robinhood	all	all	12 / 37 · 32% (20–49%)
robinhood	unknown	regime unknown: anchored before the first pull of this store	0 / 8 · rate at 30
solana	100k-1M	Single-file door	2 / 25 · rate at 30
solana	100k-1M	regime unknown: anchored before the first pull of this store	0 / 2 · rate at 30
solana	1M+	Single-file door	0 / 1 · rate at 30
solana	1M+	regime unknown: anchored before the first pull of this store	0 / 1 · rate at 30
solana	75k-100k	Single-file door	6 / 69 · 8.7% (4.0–18%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners
solana	75k-100k	regime unknown: anchored before the first pull of this store	1 / 1 · rate at 30
solana	all	all	12 / 193 · 6.2% (3.6–11%)
solana	unknown	Single-file door	1 / 1 · rate at 30
solana	unknown	regime unknown: anchored before the first pull of this store	2 / 93 · 2.2% (0.6–7.5%) not yet reliable: under 10 winners

Swipe for regime and winners →

Data health

Snapshot completeness

Scheduled observations captured, of those due (due time plus tolerance passed) for coins the store was tracking.

Anchor	At	Due	Captured	Late
From first sight	2h	5997	5842 / 5997 · 97% (97–98%)	154
From first sight	24h	5863	5699 / 5863 · 97% (97–98%)	77
From first sight	7d	3055	1800 / 3055 · 59% (57–61%)	456
From the $75k cross	2h	1349	1349 / 1349 · 100% (100–100%) not yet reliable: under 10 missed	198
From the $75k cross	24h	1325	1322 / 1325 · 100% (99–100%) not yet reliable: under 10 missed	173
From the $75k cross	7d	669	492 / 669 · 74% (70–77%)	82

Swipe for captured and late →

Model ladder

Conditional counts on a chronological split, with an embargo between train and test.

train 161 until 5 Oct 05:33 UTC · embargo 7d 0h · test 0 from 12 Oct 05:33 UTC

Rung	Family	Selected	M0 same set	Lift
M1	structure path	none yet	none yet	not usable
M2	flow quality	none yet	none yet	not usable
M3	migration	none yet	none yet	not usable
M4	entity prior	none yet	none yet	not usable
M5	attention	none yet	none yet	not usable
M6	safety overlay	none yet	none yet	not usable

Swipe for M0 and lift →